CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-01T22:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-01T22:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27973/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2. Brightening and broad area of dimming starts at 2023-12-01T21:15Z in SDO AIA 193, 171. Rising/opening field lines as well as ejecta off the SW limb visible in SDO AIA 171 around 21:51Z. Post-eruptive arcades visible at 23:24Z in SDO AIA 171 and 304 imagery. Associated with an M1.0 flare from AR 13500. Arrival signature likely combined with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream in DSCOVR data at L1 and is characterized by an amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total increasing from approx. 6 nT to 10 nT by 2023-12-04T05:10Z, and an increase in density. The solar wind speed increased from around 500 km/s to 520 km/s, reaching 550 km/s around 2023-12-04T09:00Z, but was already elevated from the coronal hole high speed stream influence.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T04:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-04T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-01T22:00 Radial velocity (km/s): 585 Longitude (deg): 45W Latitude (deg): 19S Half-angular width (deg): 44 Notes: Average taken of several analysis of this feature. Space weather advisor: CLLead Time: 21.33 hour(s)
Difference: -13.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-03T07:10Z
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